Archive for the ‘Uncategorized’ Category

First Ever Successful Prediction of GMT! 3 Years Done!

August 30, 2011

Sorry about the title.

My prediction of the GMT, HadCRUT (NH+SH)/2 monthly time series is now three years old. Before checking the results I would like to list some important requirements for predictions of this kind:

1) Predictions need to include prediction intervals. Predictions without prediction intervals (or such indications of confidence) are useless.

2) There has to be a reasonable mathematical or physical model behind the prediction

Note that one cannot succeed in 1 without having the requirement 2 fulfilled.

3) Prediction intervals shouldn’t be too wide. Floor to ceiling approach is too easy. The true value should pass the upper or lower limit from time to time (as the selected confidence level suggests).

4) If your prediction clearly fails, let it go. Do not move the goalposts after the fact.

Here is the result so far:


One could claim that this is a failed prediction, as there are so few values below the prediction mean. I could perform a statistical test to check it (MC runs indicate that it is ok), but I’ll do it later. Details about this prediction (requirement 2) are to be published later.

The prediction was originally presented in here ( )

The Trick Timeline

February 26, 2010

Date: 16 Nov 1999, Phil

I’ve just completed Mike’s Nature trick of adding in the real temps
to each series for the last 20 years (ie from 1981 onwards) amd from
1961 for Keith’s to hide the decline.

Date: 22 Dec 2004, mike

No researchers in this field have ever, to our knowledge, “grafted the thermometer record onto” any reconstruction. It is somewhat disappointing to find this specious claim (which we usually find originating from industry-funded climate disinformation websites) appearing in this forum. Most proxy reconstructions end somewhere around 1980, for the reasons discussed above. Often, as in the comparisons we show on this site, the instrumental record (which extends to present) is shown along with the reconstructions, and clearly distinguished from them (e.g. highlighted in red as here).

Date: 6 May 2009, UC

Let’s see; I think this is made by padding with zeros, but 1981-1998 instrumental is grafted onto reconstruction:

(larger image here )

I used Mann’s lowpass.m , modified to pad with zeros instead of mean of the data,



Original CA link


Date: 20 Nov 2009, UC

“I’ve just completed Mike’s Nature trick of adding in the real temps
to each series for the last 20 years (ie from 1981 onwards) amd from
1961 for Keith’s to hide the decline”

Is this about the MBH99 smooth ?

Date: 20 Nov 2009, gavin

[Response: This has nothing to do with Mann’s Nature article. The 50-year smooth in figure 5b is only of the reconstruction, not the instrumental data. – gavin]

Date: 21 Nov 2009, gavin

And it remains unclear why this was described as Mann’s Nature trick since no such effect is seen in Mike’s paper in any case. – gavin]

Date: 22 Nov 2009, mike

In some earlier work though (Mann et al, 1999), the boundary condition for the smoothed curve (at 1980) was determined by padding with the mean of the subsequent data (taken from the instrumental record).

Date: 24 Nov 2009, CRU

To produce temperature series that were completely up-to-date (i.e. through to 1999) it was necessary to combine the temperature reconstructions with the instrumental record, because the temperature reconstructions from proxy data ended many years earlier whereas the instrumental record is updated every month. The use of the word “trick” was not intended to imply any deception.

Date: 25 Nov 2009, Jean S

UC has corrected me on the fact that adding the instrumental series to the proxy data prior smoothing was used already in MBH98 (Figure 5b), so, unlike I claimed in #66, “Mike’s Nature trick” is NOT a misnomer.

Date: 25 Nov 2009, UC

..and here’s instrumental (81-95)+zero padded Fig 5b smooth (red):


Original CA link


Date: 1 Apr 2010, UC

April Fools, here’s the turn-key(*) code

(*) after you download the two files , and

Some Interesting Figures

January 3, 2008

While discussing at CA, I’ve made some figures that are spread around CA posts. Here’s a collection of the interesting ones, along with link to CA post in question. All those seem to be related to Dr. Mann’s work. I wonder why..

  1. Re-scaling the Mann and Jones 2003 PC1
  2. (more…)