First Ever Successful Prediction of GMT! 3 Years Done!

Sorry about the title.

My prediction of the GMT, HadCRUT (NH+SH)/2 monthly time series is now three years old. Before checking the results I would like to list some important requirements for predictions of this kind:

1) Predictions need to include prediction intervals. Predictions without prediction intervals (or such indications of confidence) are useless.

2) There has to be a reasonable mathematical or physical model behind the prediction

Note that one cannot succeed in 1 without having the requirement 2 fulfilled.

3) Prediction intervals shouldn’t be too wide. Floor to ceiling approach is too easy. The true value should pass the upper or lower limit from time to time (as the selected confidence level suggests).

4) If your prediction clearly fails, let it go. Do not move the goalposts after the fact.

Here is the result so far:

Prediction

One could claim that this is a failed prediction, as there are so few values below the prediction mean. I could perform a statistical test to check it (MC runs indicate that it is ok), but I’ll do it later. Details about this prediction (requirement 2) are to be published later.

The prediction was originally presented in here ( http://climateaudit.org/2008/07/29/koutsoyiannis-et-al-2008-on-the-credibility-of-climate-predictions/ )

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3 Responses to “First Ever Successful Prediction of GMT! 3 Years Done!”

  1. Spence_UK Says:

    Not too shabby!

    The question is, how will your prediction fare compared to Hansen’s 1988 efforts? Need a few more years to find out I think!

  2. uc00 Says:

    Hansen doesn’t fulfill the requirement 1). And, if the scenarios are not well defined, the requirement 3) is not fulfilled (=anything goes).

    We should also require much more accurate prediction (shorter prediction intervals) from Hansen, as his prediction is conditional on scenarios, mine is not.

  3. uc Says:

    Most recent HadCRUT3 shows
    2011/12 0.252 ( http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/hadobs/hadcrut3/diagnostics/global/nh+sh/ )

    my prediction (more than 3 years old now ) was
    2011/12 0.24876 ( http://www.climateaudit.info/data/uc/GMT_prediction.txt )

    Still quite good, but for the 2012 there is a real challenge, as Met Office predicts ( http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/news/releases/archive/2011/2012-global-temperature-forecast )

    2012 is expected to be around 0.48 °C warmer than the long-term (1961-1990) global average of 14.0 °C, with a predicted likely range of between 0.34 °C and 0.62 °C, according to the Met Office annual global temperature forecast.

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